Nate Silver’s Now-cast: What are the chances if the election were held today?

Had the election been held on July 27, the last day of serious booing, Clinton would have had only a 44.6% chance of winning—her lowest ever. Nine days later on Aug 5, her chances of winning an election held today are 92.9%—her highest ever. While this is amazing, a lot can still happen in 95 days, so the chance Clinton will win the election is only about 78%. It’s way too early to rest easy.

On Tues (Aug 2) Obama said Trump was “unfit to serve as president” and “woefully unprepared” for the Presidency. The GOP must have been listening. The next day, Reince Priebus, Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich launched a Trump personality “intervention.” His problem is, as Clinton explained, “A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons.” [Read more…]

Update June 21, 2016. The chance of a “Trump Dump” tripled in the last week, from 5% to 15%. Here’s how. Kendal Unruh, a Colorado Republican delegate on the Rules Committee, has a plan to turn all their delegates into Superdelegates. She agrees with Bernie Sanders: “the responsibility the superdelegates have is to decide what is best for this country and what is best for the Democratic [Republican] Party.” But she applies that to ALL delegates. So Unruh wants a new rule, [Read more…]