Nate Silver’s Now-cast: What are the chances if the election were held today?

Had the election been held on July 27, the last day of serious booing, Clinton would have had only a 44.6% chance of winning—her lowest ever. Nine days later on Aug 5, her chances of winning an election held today are 92.9%—her highest ever. While this is amazing, a lot can still happen in 95 days, so the chance Clinton will win the election is only about 78%. It’s way too early to rest easy.

On Tues (Aug 2) Obama said Trump was “unfit to serve as president” and “woefully unprepared” for the Presidency. The GOP must have been listening. The next day, Reince Priebus, Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich launched a Trump personality “intervention.” His problem is, as Clinton explained, “A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons.”The graph above is from Nate Silver’s 538 blog, and he’s generally considered the best election statistician in the business. He weights all polls by their accuracy and has the best data.

Here’s how Trump could implode—runaway defections. Trump has threatened people like Marco Rubio with more insults unless they endorse. So Rubio did. When Trump is powerful, this works. But as he loses power, people will stop fearing him and will turn on him—making him even less powerful.

Trump has had problems before and this probably will not be the end of him. But, the more public this gets, the more Trump will hate it, and the more he hates it, the more he acts out and the better the chance of implosion.

If it’s really happening, you don’t want to miss being part of this historic moment.

Sources (Aug 3):

• Aug 5, Can Trump, or the GOP, ‘reset’?  Washington Post
• Aug 5, 1pm. Trump faces divided party in Midwestern battlegrounds —Star Trib
• Aug 5, 12pm Trump spokesman: These ‘have been very good days‘ —Politico
• Aug 4, 8pm. ‘Trump Is Cratering‘: New Polls Signal Deep Trouble for Republican Nominee —Bloomberg
• Aug 4, 12pm Paul Ryan: My support for Donald Trump is not a “blank check” —CBS
• Aug 4, 10am Trump plans major campaign changes amid GOP intervention buzz, Giuliani says —NJ
• Aug 4, 9am. Giuliani blames Gingrich for Trump ‘intervention’ reports —Politico
• Aug 3, 9pm. GOP reaches ‘new level of panic’ over Trump’s candidacy —Washington Post
• Aug 3, 7pm. The GOP’s Donald Trump freak-out —CNN
• Aug 3, 7pm. Trump’s unraveling Republican Party —Christian Science Monitor
• Aug 3, 4pm. Trump campaign in turmoil … top Republicans begin exploring ways to replace him on ballot —NY Daily News
• Aug 3, 3pm. Republicans planning Trump ‘intervention’ after rocky week —FOX
• Aug 3, 3pm. Can This Campaign Be Saved? GOP Scrambles To ‘Reset’ Trump —NPR
• Aug 3, 1pm. Could Trump actually drop out? —Washington Post
• Aug 3, 1pm. Trump Allies Plot Candidate Intervention —NBC News
• Aug 3, 1pm. Will GOP leaders stage a Trump ‘intervention’? —Washington Examiner
• Aug 3, 1pm. Enraged Trump Toady Reince Priebus Lashing Out With Nice Email —The Intelligencer
• Aug 3, 9am. Senior GOP Officials Exploring Options If Trump Drops Out —ABC News