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Bernie knows it’s nonsense, but he’s not saying. He’s happy to have people fall for this line. 2015 is like 2007 and Bernie is like Obama. Let’s take a look.
- This time in 2007
- Hillary had 125 Democratic endorsements
- Obama had 47
- This time in 2015
- Hillary has 307 Democratic endorsements (1/15 update: 457)
- Bernie has 0 (zero). (1/15 update: 2)
According to Nate Silver’s blog (most accurate numbers guy), such major party endorsement are the best single prediction of who will win the nomination.
There’s a reason for this. Insiders figure Bernie would lose at least 49 states. Democrats are not keen on this.
Not getting endorsements? What are you blathering about? The 150 year old Nation Magazine just endorsed Bernie, only the 3rd time in their history to endorse a candidate. Moveon.org just endorsed Bernie after holding a membership pole that selected Bernie with the highest margin of any candidate pole in their history. And/in national poll after poll Bernie leads all candidates and is the ONLY candidate with a net positive favoribility rating. Oh, you mean DNC endorsements? The DNC is a fecklessness corrupt organization that no more represents the majority of us Democrats than the insane RNC!
I’m “blathering” about reality. Of party elites, e.g. congressmen and governors, Hillary has 457 to Bernie’s 2.
Reality is that Bernie and his supporters rail about how various bad guys — banks, corporations, “the party” — have all the power and run the country. But they don’t get it. The bad guys actually do have all the power, and Moveon has almost none. Time to wake up.
I’d like to see this change. I’d like to get all the big money out of politics, go back to taxing the super rich as much as possible and have single payer health care. But Bernie can’t do that because he does not get reality. He gets how things should be. He does not understand how they are. So he doesn’t know how to make change. It’s fairly likely that all he will do is get a Republican elected.
Currently he looks almost plausible. This is because all of the powerful conservative forces in the country are on his side. He’s the best way to stop Hillary. If you are for Bernie, like it or not, you hare helping the Koch brothers and the Republicans. This does not worry the Banks even a little.
Nate Silver, therefore, would have predicted in 2007 that Clinton would have won the Democratic nomination. Is that what you’re saying this time, too, based on elected official’s endorsements? I say, BS, because of course voters make the decision, not super-delegates.
No, actually, I’m saying exactly what I said. Bernie is not in the same position Obama was in — at all.
And as I point out elsewhere there’s a reason. Unless Trump is the GOP candidate (unlikely) Bernie can’t win. I know you will not like hearing that, but the world is just not so cheery and rosy as Bernie supporters think. Wish is were.
Um, no. Your linked article links in turn to a 538 piece (by Harry Enten, btw, not Nate Silver as you claimed) that discusses only the primary election, concluding that Sanders can’t win the primary. Nowhere does it discuss outcomes should Sanders somehow win the Democratic nomination. (You did read the Enten piece carefully, didn’t you?)
Accordingly, there is no basis in your cited sources for the claim that “Unless Trump is the GOP candidate (unlikely) Bernie can’t win.”
You also claim that “Insiders figure that Bernie would lose at least 49 states.” You don’t state which insiders, or what their reasoning is. You have provided no basis for crediting your assertions.
1. It is, as I said, “on Nate Silver’s Blog.” He vets this stuff and probably ran the numbers that statement is based on. You are grasping at straws.
2. Right, I concluded only that Sanders can win the nomination (you don’t mean “primary,” I’m quite sure.)
3. Right again, I don’t discuss “outcomes should Sanders somehow win the Democratic nomination.” As I said, he’s no “Obama” and so he’s not going to get the nomination. You may recall Obama did that. Since Sandars won’t, he’s no Obama.
4. Nope I didn’t give you all my sources. But the story stands, and it will stand the test of time.
Just to be perfectly clear — Sander is not getting endorsements, that’s a very strong sign he is not getting the endorsement — according to Nate Silver’s blog — and you can be 99.9% sure Nate checked those stats.