Government Accounting Office (GAO)
As shown in the figure below, attacks against the coalition and its Iraqi partners reached an all time high during July 2006. … In July 2006, the State Department reported that the recent upturn in violence has hindered efforts to engage with Iraqi partners.
Source: Gao.gov/new.items/d061094t.pdf

DOD Report to Congress, 8/29/2006
The graph on p. 32 shows that Coalition casualties increased for the three months after this “turning point” and Iraqi casualites increased 82 to 117 per day, as compared with the three months prior (Feb. 11 — May 19).
Source: Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq.

About the new Prime Minister, Maliki
Maliki, like the previous PM, is from the Dawa party (“Islamic injunctions are the basis of legislation”). It has close ties with Iran, and Maliki visited Iran Sept. 11 to ”enhance relationships.” (NYT, Sept. 10.) When we attacked a Shiite death squad, Maliki severely critized the US Army. Sectarian violence has increased rapidly under Maliki.

“Sunni Insurgency Remains Strong and Resilient”
Section heading on p. 10 of GAO report, Stabilizing Iraq, An Assessment of the Security Situation, Sept. 11, 2006. DOD reports: “However, the Sunni Arab insurgence remains potent and viable.” (p. 26.) “Conflict in Anbar Province remains centered on the Sunni insurgency.” (p. 28) Anbar accounts for 27% of all attacks. (Graph, p. 32.) and “The bulk of the Rejectionist insurgency will likely continue to attack Coalition forces while they remain in Iraq. (p. 29). From The Dept. of Defense’s Report to Congress (Aug. 2006). 

Sunni support for the insurgency is up to 75% from 14% in 2003 — ABC news Sept. 20, 2006. Source: ABCnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=2470183&page=1
Also: select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F50F10FD3E550C718DDDA00894DE404482

The December 2005 elections heightened sectarian tensions
“However, according to the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the December 2005 elections appeared to heighten sectarian tensions and polarize sectarian divides. According to a U.S. Institute of Peace report,8 the focus on ethnic and sectarian identity has sharpened as a result of Iraq’s political process, while nationalism and a sense of Iraqi identity have weakened.” —Stabilizing Iraq: An Assessment of the Security Situation. (Statement for the Record by David M. Walker Comptroller General of the United States) Published by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO).
 

DOD graph show “Sectarian Incidents” turned up sharply after the Dec. 2005 election. They went from Sectarian casualties went from 300/month in December 2005, to 400 in January, 800 in February, 1700 in march and 2000/month in June. See DOD graph from the Dept. of Defense Report to Congress, August 29, 2006.

Insurgencies last up to nine years
GEN. MYERS: “We’re involved in an insurgency, a very violent insurgency.  If there was a magic bullet, … we’ve stood up here and said this is a thinking and adapting adversary. The vehicle- borne improvised explosive device is a very tough device to thwart. … We work on it every day.  But I wouldn’t look for results tomorrow.  This is a — this — one thing we know about insurgencies is that they last from, you know, three, four years to nine years.  These are tough fights. (5/12/2005)

What was going on in May, 2005 to provoke Cheney’s comment on the 29th?
1. GEN. MYERS: “every time you have spike in violence, and we have a spike here in early May in violence, …”
2. US fatalities were up to 80 from 35 two months before.
3. Question for Gen. Myers: “By the U.S. military’s own estimates, hundreds of Iraqi civilians and security forces killed in Iraq over the last several weeks — car bombs at an all-time high, they tell us…”
Source: Defenselink.mil/transcripts/2005/tr20050512-secdef2761.html

The American military commander in the Persian Gulf, General John Abizaid
CARL LEVIN: General Abizaid, can you give us your assessment of the strength of the insurgency. Is it less strong, more strong, about the same strength as it was six months ago?
JOHN ABIZAID: In terms of comparison from six months ago, in terms of foreign fighters, I believe there are more foreign fighters coming into Iraq than there were six months ago. In terms of the overall strength of the insurgency, I’d say it’s about the same as it was.
CARL LEVIN: Well, the Vice-President has said it’s in its last throes. That’s the statement that the Vice President. Doesn’t sound to me from your testimony, or any other testimony here this morning, that it is in its last throes.
JOHN ABIZAID: I’m sure you’ll forgive me from criticising the Vice-President.
www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1399902.htm

Bush used “As the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.” and variations of it on 77 public occasions starting on June 28, 2005 and ending on June 26, 2006. —based on searches of GPOaccess.gov/wcomp/search.html. Cheney used it a similar number of times.

Children love to hear the same stories over and over again. —Bush, Oct. 3, 2001.
Source: Whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/10/20011003-19.html

Iraqi casualties continue to increase
DOD tracks casualties by political period. In the election period, Iraqi casualties were 50/day. In the next period, Feb. 11 — Aug. 28, 2005 they were 58/day. In their most recent tracking period, — Aug. 11, 2006, they were 117/day. Coalition casualties have remained flat. Source: DOD Report to Congress, p. 32.

Takeover by fundamentalist Shiites 
The Sunnis boycotted the election and recieved only 2% of the vote. This allowed Jaafari, head of the extremist Shiite Dawa party, to win as Prime Minister over a secular candidate by one vote, thanks to 100% backing by the even more extreme Sadr block in the newly elected Nantional Assembly. The Dawa party has close ties to Iran. Sources: InfoPlease.com/spot/iraqtimeline4.html, en.WikiPedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_al-Jaafari.

Fact 
Thwarting attacks believed to be planned for the Wednesday transfer date was a factor in advancing it to Monday, several American officials said. ”We have said all along that we believed that the terrorists on the ground were going to do everything they can to literally and figuratively blow up the handover of sovereignty,” one official said. –NYT,  “Transition in Iraq,”, June 29, 2004.

At the handover ceremony, Bremer read a letter … Less than an hour later, he boarded a helicopter, according to coalition military spokesman Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmett, and within two hours, he was out of the country. –CNN, “US returns sovereignty to Iraq,” June 28, 2004.

Fact

This was four days after 16 men were shot down near Fallujah. On Nov. 14, Gen. Abizaid said the insurgents were “increasingly well organized and well financed, and are gradually expanding their attacks” (NY Times). On Nov. 15th the US shifted course in response to growing problems and agreed to grant “sovereignty” to Iraq before they wrote a constitution (NY Times).
Fact

Troop levels hit 115,000 in Feb. 2004www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/050808/8forces_2.htm

Saying “bring it on,” kind of tough talk, you know, that sent the wrong signal to people. I learned some lessons about expressing myself maybe in a little more sophisticated manner — you know, “wanted dead or alive,” that kind of talk. –Bush, 5/25/2006
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/05/20060525-12.html

Fact

Fact

Fact

Fact 
We’re not going to win against the insurgency. The Iraqi people are going to win against the insurgency. That insurgency could go on for any number of years. Insurgencies tend to go on five, six, eight, 10, 12 years. –Rumsfeld, 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,160716,00.html
see also: http://www.murtha.org/node/111

Fact 
Abizaid: till spring
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N19443462.htm